Updates from the North America team winter 2026
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Winter 2026

Notes from North America

Happy 2026 from the IEEFA team in North America. The last quarter of 2025 was a busy one as we traveled to Kansas City, Mo., for our annual in person meeting and a group of us also traveled to Reserve, La., for our first finance class with local advocates. Both were excellent opportunities to connect outside of our virtual boxes and discuss the real-world impact we want to have.

North America team in Kansas City

Most of the North America team in Kansas City.

 

In addition to some overdue in person meetings, we kept up with our in-depth analysis. Our work in Puerto Rico remains as timely as ever, as the territory continues to set renewable records despite headwinds. We also held a webinar discussing the energy transition in Colorado, which was well-attended by community members. Our annual summer internship program continues to pay off with the publication of our first report on agrivoltaics. Written by Asher Salkin during his time as our research intern, it's IEEFA's first look at the opportunity presented by expanding solar panels into agricultural land. We were also honored to be published in The New York Times opinion section in early October, where we made the argument that no matter how many executive orders are issued, coal is simply not economical in the United States anymore.

 

As we look ahead to the new year, the energy landscape is only getting more complicated and more globally connected. This will bring new challenges for our team, but also new opportunities. I look forward to continuing our work accelerating the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy, no matter the obstacles.

 

-Todd Leahy

North America Regional Director

Catch up Quick

Financially troubled New Fortress Energy continues to push for Puerto Rico natural gas expansion, onerous contract terms

In October, the Puerto Rico Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB) commented on a major proposed natural gas contract, sending the Puerto Rican government back to continue negotiating with New Fortress Energy (NFE). The proposed contract would lock Puerto Rico into more gas than it needs—at ratepayer expense—and highlights the risks of Puerto Rico’s ongoing relationship with NFE.

 

More oil, fewer jobs: Employment declines in the U.S. oil and gas sector

Despite record-setting production in the U.S. oil and gas industry, increased volumes have not translated into more jobs for either the industry or the overall economy. In fact, the industry employs 20% fewer workers than it did a decade ago. Over the last 10 years the oil and gas industry has shed 252,000 jobs, and a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that oil and gas regions also have underperformed on overall employment and wage growth when compared to non-oil and gas regions. The number of jobs required to produce a barrel of oil has fallen by half over the last decade.

 

Agrivoltaics: An economic option for farmers and rural development

Across the United States, energy demand is surging after decades of stagnant growth, due to electrification efforts, data centers, and artificial intelligence. As demand increases, the economics continue to favor wind and solar, which consistently outcompete gas and coal in affordability. As rural communities look to increase renewable energy, a unique opportunity presents itself. The expansion of agrivoltaics could boost generation from renewable energy, decrease water use, and increase yields—providing a win for renewable energy and agricultural communities. 

 

The case for virtual power plants

Virtual power plants (VPPs) are every bit as real as conventional generation resources. Essentially collections of distributed battery storage units and other controllable devices, VPPs also can be built quickly and cost effectively—key attributes today given the recent uptick in electricity demand and projections for continued growth in the years ahead. 

 

Single-Use Plastics (SUP): Impact of a 70% reduction findings, market dynamics, and methodology

Our strategic analysis finds that a large reduction in single-use plastics (SUP) use would substantially lower plastics demand, reshape oil consumption patterns, and compress earnings for major producers. The estimates are designed to show order-of-magnitude effects, not precise forecasts.

 

Puerto Rico’s virtual power plant contributes to grid reliability during summer peak

The aggregation of distributed batteries as a “virtual power plant” has proved to be the fastest solution to begin addressing Puerto Rico’s ongoing generation reliability problems. Despite the progress in both distributed and utility-scale battery storage, the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau has approved a new 560MW gas plant and the procurement of 3000MW of additional centralized power plant capacity. Doubling down on imported fossil fuels risks perpetuating the electrical system’s fiscal instability and crowding out the island’s ability to meet its renewable energy target. Spanish version available here.

Chart of the Quarter

The benefits derived from oil and gas employment wages within the U.S. economy are decaying. During the last two market-driven cycles, the oil and gas industry has experienced lower peaks for employment levels compared to the preceding highs. Oil and gas staffing peaked at 1.26 million in 2014, coinciding with sustained high crude oil prices and a boom in oil and gas employment during the early phases of the U.S. fracking boom. But a lower employment peak was reported in 2019 at 1.13 million, even though production levels were higher than in 2014. A similar pattern emerged in 2024, with oil and gas employment at 1 million juxtaposed against record-setting production. As seen in our chart of the quarter, over the past decade, the U.S. oil and gas industry has experienced a 20% drop in employment. 

Figure 1 Rising costs of SMRs in the U.S.@2x changed date

Quotable

“Proponents of LNG exports point to the broader social and economic benefits from exports. However, assessing the net economic benefits of the industry requires a recognition of its adverse impacts and costs.”

Kevin Morrison, energy finance analyst, Australian gas

 

“This transition is both a high-risk challenge and a high-return opportunity. If Jharkhand acts now, it can not only safeguard its economy and workforce from the decline of coal but also position itself at the forefront of India’s low-carbon growth story.” 

Soni Tiwari, energy finance specialist, South Asia

Media Highlights

New York Times (opinion): Trump’s Coal Plan Is Doomed

The Energy Mix: Trans Mountain Pipeline Tolls Could Leave Feds on the Hook for Billions in Further Costs

Marketplace: There's a glut of oil. Here's why

La Perla del Sur: Alerta: el gobierno planea contratar mucha más generación de la necesaria

Heatmap: PJM Is Paralyzed by Its Data Center Dilemma

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