March 2026

Notes from North America

Hello again from the North America team. You may notice we're back in your inbox sooner than you may have expected. Given the fast-moving nature of the global energy market, we have decided to increase our newsletter schedule to every other month from the previous quarterly cadence. We hope you stay with us so we can keep you up to date more often on everything the North America team is up to!

To say it's been a tumultuous start to the year would be an understatement. As global markets react to conflicts, keeping up with LNG imports and exports, gas prices, and geopolitical realities can seem daunting. But we’re up to the task, and even as global instability continues, there are still bright spots. Despite an uphill battle, renewables continue to grow across the continent. 

In late January we launched the North American LNG Export Tracker. The project compiled many of our findings from previous research and presented them in a new visual format, making it an easy reference point for understanding how North American exports affect the continent and beyond. As recent events have shown, the global LNG market changes quickly, and the tracker has proven to be an important storytelling tool to help comprehend this complex landscape.

Following the publication of the tracker, we held a webinar with our colleagues in Europe and Asia to discuss the global implications of North America's growing export market. With people joining from across the globe and enthusiastic participation during the Q&A session, it was one of our more successful webinars. You can watch the webinar here and find the slides for North America, Asia, and Europe on our website.

As always, we are dedicated to advancing the energy transition, even as the regional energy landscape continues to shift. Thanks for staying with us, all the best.

-Todd Leahy

North America Regional Director

Catch up Quick

Offshore wind stop-work orders are costing consumers, delaying needed electricity

Economic reality continues pushing coal offline

At the Springerville coal plant in Arizona, the economic reality is clear: Coal is no longer competitive and no amount of rhetoric is going to change that. All three owners of the plant have determined it is time to stop burning coal. The Springerville coal plant is the latest example of the administration’s support for uneconomic coal running into reality.

Solar, battery storage to continue rapid growth as coal and gas share of power keeps shrinking

The blistering pace of the buildout of solar and battery storage appears set to continue for at least the next two years, allowing renewables to keep winning market share from coal and gas in U.S. power markets. The current political headwinds facing the energy transition are real. But the market clearly recognizes the economic competitiveness, reliability, and speed-to-market of renewables and dispatchable battery storage. That’s why the energy transition continues; the only question is how quickly it occurs.

Shell’s 4Q25 results confirm chemicals division is structural drag

Chart of the Quarter

IEEFA’s calculation of the generation supply curve of the Tri-State Generation & Transmission Cooperative shows the problems facing the three owners of the Springerville coal plant. The curve moves from Tri-State’s least-cost resources on the left (hydro, solar, and wind, which are always dispatched when available) to higher-cost gas and coal resources toward the right. The highest cost resources on the far right, the co-op’s peaker units, are only dispatched during the highest demand periods. Springerville Unit 3 is well to the right, meaning it is only economic to run when demand is relatively high. If the owners run their units less often, the fixed costs must be spread over fewer units of output, putting further upward pressure on the price of power.

Quotable

“The prospect of stranded gas assets in Thailand’s power sector is not a hypothetical outcome of a future energy transition but a characteristic of the current conditions facing gas power plant operators. The current gas pause presents an opportunity to recalibrate and deliver Thailand towards a more affordable and sustainable energy future.”

Christopher Doleman, LNG/Gas Specialist, Asia

“Closing the adaptation financing gap requires treating it as a core national development and economic priority, integrated into long-term planning, budgeting, and policy frameworks. Investors should move beyond seeing it solely as a cost and incorporate forward-looking resilience risks and benefits into financial appraisal, investment strategies, and project evaluations.” 

Ramnath N. Iyer, Sustainable Finance Lead, Asia

Media Highlights

The Hill Times (opinion): The world has too much LNG—so why is Canada fast-tracking more?

Canary Media: Bad Bunny's Super Bowl show had a big message about Puerto Rico's grid

CNBC: Oil giants brace for a bruising earnings season — with shareholder returns at risk

Public News Service: Arizona coal-fired power plant has grown inefficient

The Globe and Mail: Shell, Mitsubishi mull altering stakes in LNG Canada to raise funds for expansion

FastCompany: How Chevron played the long game for Venezuela’s oil reserves

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